Each year U-Haul releases a report showing state population growth and loss by the number of its trucks moving to or out of a state. Since 2015, the state of Illinois has been ranked either 49th or 50th in truck loss. So, it wasn’t surprising when the U.S. Census Bureau released its county-by-county count, which showed Illinois was one of three states that declined in population over the last decade. The total population loss between 2010-2020 was 18,000 people and the majority it came out of the area south of Interstate 80.
The population loss was felt the most by the 87 downstate counties that lost 177,000 people. Fifteen mostly upstate counties, which include Cook and Chicagoland’s five collar counties, gained a population of 159,000 during that same timeframe. The state’s total population is now 12,822,739.
In the last decade the number of resident members in IBSA churches has declined along with the state’s population. In 2010, 148,546 resident members were reported in IBSA churches, but by 2020, the churches reported 123,569 resident members in their Annual Church Profiles. While IBSA plants between 15 and 20 new churches each year, the number of churches that close annually and the loss of active members to an aging population make it difficult to balance the declines.
Nationally, approximately 3,000 Protestant churches were started in the U.S., but 4,500 closed in 2019, according to estimates from Nashville-based Lifeway Research. At the same time, declines in the birthrate and the increase in younger adults who refuse to identify with any organized religious organization make the local church’s task even harder.
But maybe, just maybe, the shrinking population news isn’t all bad.
IBSA’s Church Health Director Scott Foshie acknowledged while the population decline might be “disheartening to see some in areas of the state, church leaders should take heart that the number of gospel opportunities remain abundant.” But ministry in these areas will likely require a shift in their approach.
Positive responses
A recent article by the economic advocacy group Wirepoints noted St. Clair, Winnebago, and Vermilion counties each lost between 7,000 to 12,000 of their residents. Near the southern-most part of the state, Alexander County lost 3,000 people, which is more than a third of its population. Each of these four counties are home to cities with areas of great poverty—East St. Louis, Rockford, Danville, and Cairo. It is in places like these that “church” must be redefined, but across all of the state as well.
Doug Morrow believes churches must understand “that the remaining residents in Illinois are less economically advantaged” and unable to contribute as previous generations have. Morrow is executive director of the Baptist Foundation of Illinois (BFI). He works with Christian estate planning, but also with church loans and investments. In addition, he is serving as bivocational pastor of Springfield Southern Baptist Church, leading the congregation to reach the population in its rapidly changing neighborhood.
With outreach ministries including food distributions and prayerwalking in the nearby area, the church is seeking to connect with people they’ve never met—and who hardly knew the church was there.
While their older, mostly white church members were distributing snow cones on a hot summer evening, Morrow told how a man driving by called out his car window, “Thank you for what you’re doing in the community!” The church recently voted to rename their 72-year-old congregation “Together Church on North Grand.”
In areas with demographic shifts or population decline, churches will not be able to “depend on the attractional model to bring in people that look like them culturally to grow the church,” Morrow said. Connecting with differing population groups necessitates churches become “intent on building authentic relationships with others—many of whom are facing profound economic or social challenges.”
With his specialty of leading churches in renewal, Foshie said church leaders can take this opportunity to study the state’s changing demographics. “While our gospel message never changes,” he said, “the new census data points to our need to rethink and to refocus how we carry out the Great Commission.”
He believes now is a great time for the local church “to consider how God is calling them to adjust their ministries to make meaningful connections with the people God has placed around them.”
Through IBSA’s ReFocus Ministry, Foshie helps churches ask themselves the right questions to meet the needs of the people in their communities and to develop new strategies. Start by asking simple questions such as, “Do the people in our worship services look like the people we see at our local grocery store, our local fast-food restaurants, or our local gas stations? How can we reach the people around our church and in the neighborhoods of our congregants?”
Effective ministry will involve planting new churches to meet people’s needs even though the population is declining. Foshie said, “Church leaders should prayerfully develop leaders that become our next church planters.”
First Baptist Church of Crystal Lake is in a rare growing area, but that also requires change. The north suburban church is taking part in Refocus using the new census data. “One of the things we noted was there were 80,000 people within a 10-mile drive,” he said. “Then, I added what was going to be growing in the future as people move into places like Crystal Lake where they can still work in Chicago.”
There are also opportunities for churches to get involved in short-term mission opportunities to partner with churches in the growing parts of our state, said Foshie.
Besides Illinois, only two other states showed declines in population—West Virginia and Mississippi. Illinois fell from the fifth most populous state to sixth, switching places with Pennsylvania.
Some experts were surprised by what they considered a lower loss in population than expected. Using estimates based on IRS data from 2010-2020, the Census Bureau had predicted the state would show a loss of around 250,000 people.
So, with new doors opening to new people groups, and mission opportunities in each county and every corner of Illinois, the news isn’t so disappointing after all. In fact, by God’s grace, it may encourage gospel growth no one ever imagined.
To learn more about ReFocus, contact ScottFoshie@IBSA.org. For information on BFI, write Doug.Morrow@BaptistFoundationIL.org.